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The Picks

Our model calls every upcoming UFC main-card fight, then shows its work: win probability against the betting line, how the fight likely ends, and the tale of the tape.

51
Fights called
2
Value picks
3
Strong calls

Our track record

44-12
Record
79%
Hit rate
80%
The books
0.161
Brier (lower=better)

Across 56 graded picks · value picks 7-1. Auto-graded from results.

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Aug 22
★ Main Event · Middleweight lean
AH Anthony Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez
15-3-0
OSM Pick
vs
GR Gregory Rodrigues
Gregory Rodrigues
19-6-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Anthony Hernandez.

Anthony Hernandez 62%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Anthony Hernandez ~55% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 25% Sub 45% Dec 30%
75"
Reach
75"
6' 0"
Height
6' 3"
32
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

📊 OSM is 16-8 on lean calls

Anthony Hernandez's relentless grappling pressure and submission prowess give him a distinct advantage in this matchup. While Gregory Rodrigues possesses significant striking power, Hernandez's ability to close distance and secure takedowns will likely dictate the pace and location of the fight, potentially leading to a submission victory. Rodrigues' past TKO losses also highlight a vulnerability

form Hernandezfinishing Hernandezstyle Hernandezphysical Rodrigues
link
Co-Main · Heavyweight slight
SS Serghei Spivac
Serghei Spivac
18-6-0
vs
VP Vitor Petrino
Vitor Petrino
14-2-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Vitor Petrino.

Vitor Petrino 61%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Vitor Petrino ~62% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 20% Dec 40%
78"
Reach
77.5"
6' 3"
Height
6' 2"
31
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

This is a tough fight to call with limited information. While Spivac holds slight physical advantages in height and reach, there's no recent coverage to assess current form, stylistic matchups, or finishing threats. Without more data, this fight appears to be a coin flip on paper.

link
Co-Main · Light Heavyweight slight
RD Roman Dolidze
Roman Dolidze
15-5-0
vs
RD Reinier de Ridder
Reinier de Ridder
21-4-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Reinier de Ridder.

Reinier de Ridder 61%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Reinier de Ridder ~56% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 25% Sub 45% Dec 30%
76"
Reach
78"
6' 2"
Height
6' 4"
38
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw

This is an intriguing matchup between two skilled middleweights. While Dolidze possesses significant power and a grappling background, de Ridder's elite-level grappling and extensive championship experience give him a slight edge. De Ridder's ability to control the fight on the ground will likely be the deciding factor.

style Ridderphysical Riddercontext Ridder
link
Co-Main · Lightweight pick'em
MJ Mason Jones
Mason Jones
18-2-0
OSM Pick
vs
MM MarQuel Mederos
MarQuel Mederos
11-1-1

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Mason Jones.

Mason Jones 51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Mason Jones ~48% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
74"
Reach
69.5"
5' 10"
Height
5' 10"
31
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

This fight presents a relatively even matchup on paper, with Mason Jones holding a notable reach advantage. Without more specific information on recent performances or stylistic nuances, it's difficult to make a strong prediction. The reach could be a key factor in dictating striking range.

physical Jones
link
Co-Main · W Flyweight pick'em
CJ Carli Judice
Carli Judice
6-2-0
vs
JC Jeisla Chaves
Jeisla Chaves
8-0-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Jeisla Chaves.

Jeisla Chaves 52%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Jeisla Chaves ~53% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
68"
Reach
68"
5' 7"
Height
5' 6"
27
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox

With very limited information available for both fighters, this prediction relies heavily on the minimal physical advantages. Carli Judice holds a slight edge in height and is younger, which could translate to better athleticism or a longer career arc. However, without any insight into their fighting styles, recent performances, or finishing capabilities, this is largely a speculative pick.

link

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3

Aug 25
★ Main Event · W Bantamweight pick'em
BM Bella Mir
Bella Mir
4-0-0
vs
AA Alex Apodaca
Alex Apodaca
3-1-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Alex Apodaca.

Alex Apodaca 51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
67"
Reach
71.5"
5' 7"
Height
5' 7"
23
Age
--
Stance
--

With very limited information available for both fighters, this is a difficult fight to predict. The only clear advantage on paper goes to Alex Apodaca with a notable reach advantage. Without knowing their fighting styles or recent performances, it's impossible to lean strongly in either direction.

physical Apodaca
link
Co-Main · Heavyweight slight
MP Mario Piazzon
Mario Piazzon
12-1-0
OSM Pick
vs
GU Guilherme Uriel
Guilherme Uriel
7-2-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Mario Piazzon.

Mario Piazzon 56%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Mario Piazzon ~57% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 15% Dec 50%
73"
Reach
74"
5' 9"
Height
6' 1"
28
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

With very limited information available, this fight is a true toss-up. Uriel holds a slight physical advantage in height and reach, which could be a factor in a heavyweight contest. However, without any insight into their fighting styles, recent form, or finishing abilities, it's impossible to make a confident prediction.

physical Uriel
link
Co-Main · Welterweight pick'em
GB Gary Balletto
Gary Balletto
11-3-0
vs
SC Sean Clancy Jr.
Sean Clancy Jr.
8-0-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Sean Clancy Jr..

Sean Clancy Jr. 52%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 15% Dec 50%
70"
Reach
5' 10"
Height
6' 2"
31
Age
23
--
Stance
--

With very limited information available, this fight is a tough one to call. Sean Clancy Jr.'s significant height advantage and youth are the only discernible factors, potentially giving him an edge in range and durability. However, without knowing anything about their fighting styles or past performances, it's largely a coin flip.

physical Jr.
link
Co-Main · Welterweight pick'em
RH Ronald Humphrey
Ronald Humphrey
4-0-0
vs
AM Alexis Miranda
Alexis Miranda
9-2-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Alexis Miranda.

Alexis Miranda 55%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 20% Dec 40%
77"
Reach
76.5"
5' 11"
Height
6' 2"
25
Age
27
--
Stance
--

With very limited information available, the most significant factor appears to be the physical disparity. Alexis Miranda, moving down from Middleweight and being significantly taller, likely holds a size and strength advantage over Ronald Humphrey. Humphrey's slight reach advantage may not be enough to overcome this physical difference, especially if Miranda can effectively close the distance.

physical Miranda
link
Co-Main · Middleweight pick'em
CP Carlos Petruzzella
Carlos Petruzzella
15-1-0
vs
NG Nick Galanti
Nick Galanti
7-1-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Nick Galanti.

Nick Galanti 53%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 20% Dec 40%
5' 11"
Height
6' 1"
29
Age
28
--
Stance
--

Given the limited information, the most significant factor is Petruzzella's move up a weight class from Welterweight to Middleweight against a naturally larger opponent in Galanti. This physical disadvantage, coupled with Galanti's height advantage, makes Galanti the slight favorite. Without more data on their skills and recent performances, it's difficult to predict a specific outcome beyond this

physical Galanti
link

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Aug 29
★ Main Event · Bantamweight strong
SY Song Yadong
Song Yadong
23-9-1
vs
UN Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar Nurmagomedov
20-1-0
OSM Pick

We're aligned with the market: Umar Nurmagomedov.

Umar Nurmagomedov 81%
The books give Umar Nurmagomedov ~79% | = their line +1.9 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Umar Nurmagomedov ~59%
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 20% Sub 45% Dec 35%
67"
Reach
69"
5' 8"
Height
5' 8"
28
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

Line: Song Yadong +350 · Umar Nurmagomedov -450

📊 OSM is 28-4 on strong calls

Umar Nurmagomedov enters this fight as a significant favorite due to his undefeated record and elite grappling. His Dagestani wrestling background presents a tough stylistic challenge for Song Yadong, who, while a dangerous striker, will likely struggle to defend the takedowns and control. Umar's ability to dictate where the fight takes place should lead him to a dominant victory.

style Nurmagomedovform Nurmagomedovfinishing Nurmagomedovsentiment Nurmagomedovphysical Nurmagomedovcontext Nurmagomedov
link
Co-Main · W Strawweight pick'em
YX Yan Xiaonan
Yan Xiaonan
19-5-0
OSM Pick
vs
DG Denise Gomes
Denise Gomes
12-3-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Yan Xiaonan.

Yan Xiaonan 55%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Yan Xiaonan ~46% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 25% Sub 5% Dec 70%
63"
Reach
63"
5' 5"
Height
5' 2"
37
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

Yan Xiaonan's technical striking and significant height advantage should allow her to control the range and outpoint Denise Gomes. While Gomes possesses power, Yan's experience against higher-level competition and her ability to maintain distance will likely lead her to a decision victory.

physical Xiaonanstyle Xiaonancontext Xiaonanfinishing Xiaonan
link
Co-Main · Bantamweight slight
KA Kai Asakura
Kai Asakura
22-6-0
OSM Pick
vs
A Aoriqileng
Aoriqileng
26-13-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Kai Asakura.

Kai Asakura 57%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Kai Asakura ~45% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 55% Sub 15% Dec 30%
69"
Reach
69"
5' 8"
Height
5' 7"
32
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

Kai Asakura enters this fight with a slight edge due to his higher-level experience and more dynamic striking. While Aoriqileng is a tough and relentless brawler, Asakura's technical prowess and finishing ability against better competition should allow him to control the pace and land significant strikes. Expect Asakura to find openings as the fight progresses.

form Asakurafinishing Asakurastyle Asakuracontext Asakuraphysical Asakurasentiment Asakura
link
Co-Main · Flyweight slight
AP Alex Perez
Alex Perez
26-10-0
vs
S Sumudaerji
Sumudaerji
19-7-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Sumudaerji.

Sumudaerji 56%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Sumudaerji ~55% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 25% Dec 45%
65.5"
Reach
72"
5' 6"
Height
5' 8"
34
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw

This flyweight bout presents an interesting clash of styles. While Sumudaerji holds a significant physical advantage in reach and height, Alex Perez's wrestling and experience against top-tier opponents could be the deciding factor. Perez will likely look to close the distance and utilize his grappling to neutralize Sumudaerji's striking.

physical Sumudaerjistyle Perez
link
Co-Main · Light Heavyweight pick'em
JT Junior Tafa
Junior Tafa
7-6-0
vs
CL Ce Liu
Ce Liu
3-1-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Ce Liu.

Ce Liu 51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
75"
Reach
77.5"
6' 3"
Height
6' 5"
29
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
--

With extremely limited information available for both Junior Tafa and Ce Liu, it's impossible to make a confident prediction. The physical attributes are very similar, with Ce Liu holding a slight edge in height and reach. Without any data on their fighting styles, recent form, or finishing capabilities, this fight is a complete toss-up.

physical Liu
link

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4

Sep 1
★ Main Event · Welterweight pick'em
PR Patrick Rivera
Patrick Rivera
13-4-0
vs
AD Adam Darby
Adam Darby
8-1-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Adam Darby.

Adam Darby 51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
6' 0"
Height
6' 3"
34
Age
27
--
Stance
--

With very limited information available for both fighters, this is a difficult fight to predict. Darby holds a slight physical advantage in height and age, which is the only discernible factor. Without any record or stylistic details, the outcome is highly uncertain.

physical Darby
link
Co-Main · Middleweight pick'em
BH Brandon Holmes
Brandon Holmes
6-1-0
OSM Pick
vs
MR Modestino Rodrigues
Modestino Rodrigues
7-1-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Brandon Holmes.

Brandon Holmes 53%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
74"
Reach
6' 2"
Height
6' 2"
29
Age
22
Orthodox
Stance
--

With very limited information available, it's difficult to make a strong prediction. Brandon Holmes has a listed reach advantage, which could be a factor if accurate. However, Modestino Rodrigues is significantly younger, potentially indicating more room for growth and athleticism.

physical Holmes
link
Co-Main · Lightweight pick'em
LM Liam McCracken
Liam McCracken
8-1-0
OSM Pick
vs
SS Silvestre Sanchez
Silvestre Sanchez
9-1-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Liam McCracken.

Liam McCracken 53%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
70"
Reach
5' 10"
Height
5' 9"
25
Age
24
--
Stance
--

With very limited information available, this fight is largely a toss-up. However, Liam McCracken holds a slight physical advantage in height and reach, and Silvestre Sanchez's move down from Lightweight to Featherweight could be a difficult weight cut, potentially impacting his performance. This makes McCracken a marginal lean based on the few known variables.

physical McCracken
link
Co-Main · Heavyweight pick'em
GL Gabriel Lourenço
Gabriel Lourenço
7-1-0
OSM Pick
vs
CC Charlie Cleveland
Charlie Cleveland
6-1-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Gabriel Lourenço.

Gabriel Lourenço 51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 15% Dec 50%
Reach
77"
6' 3"
Height
6' 2"
Age
28
--
Stance
--

With extremely limited information on both Gabriel Lourenço and Charlie Cleveland, this fight is a complete toss-up. The only discernible physical difference is Cleveland's reach advantage, which is a minor factor in the absence of other data. Without any fight history or stylistic insights, predicting a winner or method is purely speculative.

link
Co-Main · Lightweight pick'em
AL Adam Livingston
Adam Livingston
7-1-0
OSM Pick
vs
HS Hunter Smith
Hunter Smith
8-1-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Adam Livingston.

Adam Livingston 55%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 20% Dec 45%
71.5"
Reach
6' 2"
Height
5' 9"
24
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
--

With very limited information available, the most significant factor is Adam Livingston's considerable physical advantages in height and reach. This could allow him to control distance and land strikes more effectively. Without any insight into their fighting styles or past performances, it's difficult to predict beyond these physical attributes.

physical Livingston
link

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

Sep 5
★ Main Event · Lightweight pick'em
DH Dan Hooker
Dan Hooker
24-14-0
OSM Pick
vs
SP Salahdine Parnasse
Salahdine Parnasse
23-2-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Dan Hooker.

Dan Hooker 53%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
75"
Reach
73"
6' 0"
Height
5' 10"
36
Age
28
Switch
Stance
--

This is a tough fight to call without more information on recent performances and specific stylistic breakdowns. While Hooker holds slight physical advantages in height and reach, Parnasse is a highly-touted prospect. The lack of recent coverage makes a confident prediction difficult.

physical Hookerstyle Hooker
link
Co-Main · Lightweight lean
FZ Farés Ziam
Farés Ziam
18-5-0
OSM Pick
vs
AS Axel Sola
Axel Sola
12-1-1

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Farés Ziam.

Farés Ziam 62%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Farés Ziam ~62% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
75"
Reach
74"
6' 1"
Height
6' 0"
29
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw

📊 OSM is 16-8 on lean calls

With very limited information available for both fighters, this matchup is a true toss-up. The physical stats are nearly identical, and without insight into their recent performances or fighting styles, it's impossible to lean definitively towards either Ziam or Sola. This fight will likely come down to who executes their game plan better on the night.

link
Co-Main · Middleweight pick'em
MP Michael Page
Michael Page
25-3-0
OSM Pick
vs
NR Nursulton Ruziboev
Nursulton Ruziboev
37-9-2

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Michael Page.

Michael Page 54%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Michael Page ~51% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 45% Sub 25% Dec 30%
79"
Reach
76"
6' 3"
Height
6' 5"
39
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox

This is an intriguing stylistic clash between two dangerous finishers. Page's unique striking and reach advantage will be key, but Ruziboev's size, youth, and aggressive finishing ability, particularly his grappling, cannot be underestimated. The weight class jump for Page is a concern against a naturally larger opponent.

style Pagephysical Ruziboevfinishing Page
link
Co-Main · Featherweight slight
MC Morgan Charrière
Morgan Charrière
21-12-1
OSM Pick
vs
FL Felipe Lima
Felipe Lima
14-2-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Morgan Charrière.

Morgan Charrière 59%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Morgan Charrière ~48% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 55% Sub 15% Dec 30%
69"
Reach
68"
5' 8"
Height
5' 6"
30
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

Morgan Charrière holds a significant physical advantage, particularly in height and reach, and Felipe Lima is moving up a weight class, which often presents challenges. Charrière's well-rounded striking and power should allow him to control the distance and land effectively against the smaller Lima. While Lima is a skilled striker, the size disparity will likely be too much to overcome.

physical Charrièrestyle Charrièrefinishing Charrière
link
Co-Main · Featherweight slight
MN Muhammad Naimov
Muhammad Naimov
13-4-0
OSM Pick
vs
LK Losene Keita
Losene Keita
16-2-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Muhammad Naimov.

Muhammad Naimov 60%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Muhammad Naimov ~61% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 15% Dec 50%
70"
Reach
72"
5' 9"
Height
5' 7"
32
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

This fight appears to be a closely matched contest on paper, with both fighters having similar stances and no clear stylistic advantages immediately apparent. Keita holds a slight physical edge in reach and age, which could play a role over the course of the fight. However, without more detailed information on their recent performances, finishing abilities, or specific stylistic nuances, it's diff

physical Keita
link

Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva

Sep 12
★ Main Event · Featherweight strong
YR Yair Rodriguez
Yair Rodriguez
21-5-0
vs
JS Jean Silva
Jean Silva
17-3-0
OSM Pick

We're aligned with the market: Jean Silva.

Jean Silva 79%
The books give Jean Silva ~75% | = their line +4.1 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Jean Silva ~65%
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 50% Sub 10% Dec 40%

Line: Yair Rodriguez +280 · Jean Silva -350

📊 OSM is 28-4 on strong calls

Jean Silva enters this fight with significant momentum and a reputation as a dangerous finisher, headlining a Noche UFC event. While Yair Rodriguez is making a return, the coverage heavily favors Silva's current form and finishing threat. The betting line also reflects a strong lean towards Silva.

finishing Silvaform Silvacontext Silvasentiment Silva
link
Co-Main · Flyweight pick'em
BM Brandon Moreno
Brandon Moreno
23-10-2
vs
JM Joseph Morales
Joseph Morales
15-2-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Joseph Morales.

Joseph Morales 54%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Joseph Morales ~54% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
70"
Reach
68"
5' 7"
Height
5' 6"
32
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch

With very limited information available, it's difficult to make a strong prediction. Moreno holds a slight physical edge in reach and height, which could be a minor factor in a close fight. However, without any data on recent form, fighting styles, or finishing capabilities, this fight is essentially a coin flip on paper.

link
Co-Main · W Flyweight slight
AG Alexa Grasso
Alexa Grasso
17-5-1
vs
MF Manon Fiorot
Manon Fiorot
13-2-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Manon Fiorot.

Manon Fiorot 59%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Manon Fiorot ~56% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
66"
Reach
65"
5' 5"
Height
5' 7"
33
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

This is a very close matchup between two elite flyweights. While Fiorot's striking volume and physical attributes might give her a slight edge in a pure stand-up battle, Grasso's championship experience and proven grappling threat cannot be underestimated. The fight will likely come down to who can impose their game plan more effectively.

physical Fiorotstyle Fiorotcontext Grasso
link
Co-Main · Heavyweight pick'em
CB Curtis Blaydes
Curtis Blaydes
19-6-0
vs
WC Waldo Cortes Acosta
Waldo Cortes Acosta
17-3-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Waldo Cortes Acosta.

Waldo Cortes Acosta 51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Waldo Cortes Acosta ~63% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 55% Sub 15% Dec 30%
80"
Reach
78"
6' 4"
Height
6' 4"
35
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

Curtis Blaydes presents a significant stylistic nightmare for Waldo Cortes Acosta with his elite wrestling and ground control. While Acosta has shown good striking, his takedown defense will be severely tested against 'Razor' Blaydes, who has a clear path to victory on the mat. Blaydes' experience against higher-level competition further solidifies his advantage in this matchup.

style Blaydesform Blaydesfinishing Blaydescontext Blaydessentiment Blaydesphysical Blaydes
link
Co-Main · Bantamweight pick'em
DI Dan Ige
Dan Ige
19-11-0
OSM Pick
vs
DM David Martinez
David Martinez
14-1-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Dan Ige.

Dan Ige 51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Dan Ige ~39% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 45% Sub 25% Dec 30%
71"
Reach
66"
5' 7"
Height
5' 5"
35
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

Dan Ige holds significant physical advantages, particularly in reach and the fact that Martinez is moving up a weight class. Ige's experience against higher-level competition and his well-rounded skill set should allow him to control the fight. Martinez will likely struggle to close the distance and deal with Ige's power and grappling.

physical Igestyle Igecontext Igefinishing Ige
link

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Sep 19
★ Main Event · Flyweight slight
AP Alexandre Pantoja
Alexandre Pantoja
30-6-0
OSM Pick
vs
JV Joshua Van
Joshua Van
17-2-0

The books favor the other guy. Our model says Alexandre Pantoja.

Alexandre Pantoja 58%
The books give Alexandre Pantoja ~50% | = their line +8.8 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Alexandre Pantoja ~50%
How it ends Most likely: R3
KO/TKO 30% Sub 40% Dec 30%
67.5"
Reach
65"
5' 5"
Height
5' 5"
36
Age
24
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

Line: Alexandre Pantoja -106 · Joshua Van -110

Pantoja, as the reigning champion, holds significant advantages in experience and high-level competition. His well-rounded skillset, particularly his grappling and finishing ability, makes him a strong favorite. While Van is a talented and younger fighter, overcoming Pantoja's championship pedigree in a rematch will be a monumental task.

form Pantojastyle Pantojafinishing Pantojacontext Pantojaphysical Pantojasentiment Pantoja
link
Co-Main · Lightweight strong
AT Arman Tsarukyan
Arman Tsarukyan
23-3-0
OSM Pick
vs
MR Mauricio Ruffy
Mauricio Ruffy
14-2-0

We're aligned with the market: Arman Tsarukyan.

Arman Tsarukyan 78%
The books give Arman Tsarukyan ~75% | = their line +2.4 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Arman Tsarukyan ~56%
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 35% Sub 30% Dec 35%
72.5"
Reach
75"
5' 7"
Height
5' 11"
29
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

Line: Arman Tsarukyan -360 · Mauricio Ruffy +285

📊 OSM is 28-4 on strong calls

Arman Tsarukyan is a significant favorite for good reason. His elite wrestling and grappling, combined with his experience against top-tier opponents, give him a clear path to victory over Mauricio Ruffy. While Ruffy possesses physical advantages and striking power, Tsarukyan's ability to control the fight's location will likely negate these threats.

form Tsarukyanstyle Tsarukyancontext Tsarukyanfinishing Tsarukyansentiment Tsarukyanphysical Ruffy
link
Co-Main · Featherweight pick'em
PP Patricio Pitbull
Patricio Pitbull
37-9-0
vs
DC Dooho Choi
Dooho Choi
17-4-1
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Dooho Choi.

Dooho Choi 52%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Dooho Choi ~64% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 50% Sub 20% Dec 30%
67"
Reach
70"
5' 6"
Height
5' 10"
39
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

Patricio Pitbull enters this fight with significant advantages in form, activity, and overall experience against top-tier competition. While Dooho Choi possesses a dangerous striking game and physical advantages, his prolonged inactivity and recent losing streak are major red flags. Pitbull's well-rounded skillset and proven durability should allow him to navigate Choi's striking and find a finish

form Pitbullactivity Pitbullfinishing Pitbullstyle Pitbullcontext Pitbullphysical Choisentiment Pitbull
link
Co-Main · Lightweight lean
RM Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano
21-7-1
OSM Pick
vs
BO Brian Ortega
Brian Ortega
16-5-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Renato Moicano.

Renato Moicano 71%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Renato Moicano ~62% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 35% Sub 30% Dec 35%
72"
Reach
69"
5' 11"
Height
5' 8"
37
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch

📊 OSM is 16-8 on lean calls

Renato Moicano holds a significant physical advantage in height and reach, which will be crucial in keeping the fight where he wants it. While Brian Ortega's submission game is elite, the move up to lightweight and the size disparity against a well-rounded fighter like Moicano presents a tough challenge. Moicano's ability to mix his striking and grappling, coupled with his physical attributes, giv

physical Moicanostyle Moicanofinishing Moicano
link
Co-Main · Light Heavyweight pick'em
AM Alonzo Menifield
Alonzo Menifield
18-6-1
vs
IB Iwo Baraniewski
Iwo Baraniewski
9-0-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Iwo Baraniewski.

Iwo Baraniewski 54%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Iwo Baraniewski ~57% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 15% Dec 50%
76"
Reach
73.5"
6' 0"
Height
6' 0"
38
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

With very limited information available, this fight is a tough one to call. Menifield's reach advantage is the only clear physical edge, but Baraniewski's youth could be a factor. Without knowing their styles, recent form, or finishing abilities, it's impossible to make a confident prediction.

physical Menifield
link

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos

Sep 26
★ Main Event · Bantamweight lean
RB Raoni Barcelos
Raoni Barcelos
22-5-0
vs
RR Raul Rosas Jr.
Raul Rosas Jr.
12-1-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Raul Rosas Jr..

Raul Rosas Jr. 66%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Raul Rosas Jr. ~54% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 25% Sub 45% Dec 30%
67"
Reach
67"
5' 7"
Height
5' 9"
39
Age
21
Orthodox
Stance
Switch

📊 OSM is 16-8 on lean calls

Raul Rosas Jr. enters this fight with a significant youth advantage and a grappling-heavy style that could exploit Raoni Barcelos' recent struggles. While Barcelos has experience, his age and recent form suggest a decline. Rosas Jr.'s high-pressure approach and finishing ability make him a strong favorite.

physical Jr.style Jr.finishing Jr.form Jr.context Jr.sentiment Jr.
link

UFC 332

Oct 3
Co-Main · Bantamweight pick'em
DF Deiveson Figueiredo
Deiveson Figueiredo
25-7-1
OSM Pick
vs
PT Payton Talbott
Payton Talbott
11-1-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Deiveson Figueiredo.

Deiveson Figueiredo 54%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Deiveson Figueiredo ~41% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 45% Sub 35% Dec 20%
68"
Reach
70.5"
5' 5"
Height
5' 10"
38
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Switch

Deiveson Figueiredo, a former champion with a well-rounded skillset and extensive experience, enters this fight as a strong favorite. While Payton Talbott possesses significant physical advantages and an undefeated record, he faces a massive step up in competition against a proven finisher. Figueiredo's ability to finish fights on the feet or the ground will be a major factor.

form Figueiredophysical Talbottstyle Figueiredofinishing Figueiredocontext Figueiredosentiment Figueiredo
link
Co-Main · Heavyweight lean
JW Johnny Walker
Johnny Walker
22-10-0
vs
MP Mick Parkin
Mick Parkin
10-1-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Mick Parkin.

Mick Parkin 65%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Mick Parkin ~62% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 45% Sub 15% Dec 40%
82"
Reach
79"
6' 6"
Height
6' 4"
34
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

📊 OSM is 16-8 on lean calls

This is a challenging fight to predict without more information. Johnny Walker is moving up to heavyweight, which is a significant factor. While he possesses a reach advantage and athleticism, Mick Parkin's natural size and strength at heavyweight could be a major hurdle. The lack of recent coverage makes assessing current form and specific stylistic advantages difficult.

physical Parkin
link
Co-Main · Middleweight pick'em
MV Marvin Vettori
Marvin Vettori
19-10-1
OSM Pick
vs
IN Ismail Naurdiev
Ismail Naurdiev
25-8-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Marvin Vettori.

Marvin Vettori 51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Marvin Vettori ~38% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 25% Sub 15% Dec 60%
74"
Reach
74"
6' 0"
Height
5' 10"
32
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox

Marvin Vettori's experience against elite competition, combined with his relentless pressure and grappling, gives him a significant edge. Naurdiev's move up in weight class and his past struggles with wrestling suggest Vettori will be able to control the pace and location of the fight. While Naurdiev possesses striking power, Vettori's legendary durability makes a finish unlikely for 'The Austrian

form Vettoristyle Vettoriphysical Vettoricontext Vettorifinishing Vettorisentiment Vettori
link
Co-Main · Middleweight slight
RK Roman Kopylov
Roman Kopylov
15-5-0
vs
AG Ateba Gautier
Ateba Gautier
11-1-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Ateba Gautier.

Ateba Gautier 62%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Ateba Gautier ~56% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 45% Sub 15% Dec 40%
75"
Reach
81"
6' 0"
Height
6' 4"
34
Age
24
Southpaw
Stance
Switch

Ateba Gautier holds a significant physical advantage with his height, reach, and youth, which could be a major factor in this middleweight contest. While Kopylov's southpaw stance offers some stylistic intrigue, Gautier's switch stance and reach could allow him to control distance and land effectively. Without further information on their recent performances or specific skill sets, the physical di

physical Gautierstyle Gautier
link

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Oct 17
★ Main Event · Welterweight slight
MM Mike Malott
Mike Malott
14-2-1
OSM Pick
vs
JB Joaquin Buckley
Joaquin Buckley
21-8-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Mike Malott.

Mike Malott 55%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Mike Malott ~57% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 45% Sub 25% Dec 30%
73"
Reach
76"
6' 1"
Height
5' 10"
34
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw

This fight presents an intriguing stylistic clash at Welterweight. While Malott has a height advantage, Buckley's significant reach advantage and southpaw stance could allow him to control the distance and land his powerful strikes. The fight likely comes down to whether Malott can close the distance and utilize his grappling or if Buckley can keep it standing and find a knockout blow.

style Buckley
link
Co-Main · Lightweight pick'em
NL Nate Landwehr
Nate Landwehr
18-8-0
vs
MN Mandel Nallo
Mandel Nallo
14-4-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Mandel Nallo.

Mandel Nallo 53%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Mandel Nallo ~49% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 10% Dec 50%
72"
Reach
75"
5' 9"
Height
6' 0"
38
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

Mandel Nallo holds a significant physical advantage in height and reach, which could be a major factor against Nate Landwehr's aggressive, brawling style. Landwehr also moving up a weight class to Lightweight adds another layer of challenge. While Landwehr's grit is undeniable, Nallo's physical attributes and potential for a more technical striking approach give him an edge.

physical Nallostyle Nallo
link
Co-Main · W Flyweight slight
EB Erin Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield
14-2-0
OSM Pick
vs
JJ Jasmine Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius
15-4-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Erin Blanchfield.

Erin Blanchfield 61%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Erin Blanchfield ~49% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 20% Sub 50% Dec 30%
66"
Reach
68"
5' 4"
Height
5' 7"
27
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

Erin Blanchfield enters this fight with significant momentum, boasting an undefeated UFC record and a reputation as an elite grappler. Her youth and finishing ability, particularly on the ground, give her a clear edge over the older and less dynamic Jasmine Jasudavicius. While Jasudavicius is durable, Blanchfield's relentless pressure and superior jiu-jitsu should lead to a dominant performance.

form Blanchfieldstyle Blanchfieldfinishing Blanchfieldphysical Blanchfieldcontext Blanchfieldsentiment Blanchfield
link
Co-Main · Heavyweight lean
TB Tanner Boser
Tanner Boser
22-11-1
vs
JD Jhonata Diniz
Jhonata Diniz
9-2-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Jhonata Diniz.

Jhonata Diniz 68%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Jhonata Diniz ~64% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 55% Sub 5% Dec 40%
75.5"
Reach
79.5"
6' 2"
Height
6' 4"
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

📊 OSM is 16-8 on lean calls

This heavyweight clash pits the experienced Tanner Boser against the debuting kickboxing phenom Jhonata Diniz. Diniz's significant reach and height advantages, combined with his elite striking background, suggest he'll have an edge on the feet. While Boser has more UFC cage time, Diniz's pure striking prowess could be too much to handle.

physical Dinizstyle Dinizfinishing Diniz
link
Co-Main · Middleweight slight
KD Kyle Daukaus
Kyle Daukaus
17-5-0
OSM Pick
vs
MB Marc-Andre Barriault
Marc-Andre Barriault
17-11-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Kyle Daukaus.

Kyle Daukaus 62%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Kyle Daukaus ~56% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 25% Sub 40% Dec 35%
76"
Reach
74"
6' 2"
Height
6' 1"
33
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox

Kyle Daukaus holds a slight edge in this matchup due to his grappling prowess and physical advantages. His submission game could prove problematic for Barriault, who prefers to keep fights standing. While Barriault possesses knockout power, Daukaus's ability to control the fight on the ground gives him a clearer path to victory.

style Daukausphysical Daukausfinishing Daukaus
link

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

Oct 24
★ Main Event · Featherweight pick'em
AV Alexander Volkanovski
Alexander Volkanovski
28-4-0
vs
ME Movsar Evloev
Movsar Evloev
20-0-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Movsar Evloev.

Movsar Evloev 51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Movsar Evloev ~63% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 15% Dec 50%
71.5"
Reach
72.5"
5' 6"
Height
5' 7"
37
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

Volkanovski, despite his recent loss, remains an elite featherweight with a well-rounded skillset and championship pedigree. His experience and ability to negate grappling exchanges will be key against the undefeated Evloev. While Evloev's wrestling is a threat, Volkanovski's TDD and striking volume should allow him to control the pace and secure a victory.

form Volkanovskistyle Volkanovskicontext Volkanovskifinishing Volkanovskisentiment Volkanovskiphysical Evloev
link
Co-Main · Bantamweight pick'em
MD Merab Dvalishvili
Merab Dvalishvili
21-5-0
OSM Pick
vs
PY Petr Yan
Petr Yan
20-5-0

The books favor the other guy. Our model says Merab Dvalishvili.

Merab Dvalishvili 53%
The books give Merab Dvalishvili ~40% | = their line +12.8 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Merab Dvalishvili ~59%
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 25% Sub 10% Dec 65%
68"
Reach
67"
5' 6"
Height
5' 7"
35
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch

Line: Merab Dvalishvili +140 · Petr Yan -160

Merab Dvalishvili's relentless pressure and wrestling-heavy attack present a tough challenge for Petr Yan, who has struggled against similar styles. While Yan possesses superior striking and championship experience, Dvalishvili's momentum and cardio could wear him down over five rounds. This fight is a classic grappler vs. striker matchup, with Dvalishvili's volume likely to sway the judges.

form Dvalishvilistyle Dvalishvilifinishing Yanphysical Dvalishvili
link
Co-Main · Flyweight pick'em
RT Ramazan Temirov
Ramazan Temirov
20-3-0
vs
LK Lone'er Kavanagh
Lone'er Kavanagh
10-2-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Lone'er Kavanagh.

Lone'er Kavanagh 51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Lone'er Kavanagh ~48% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
63"
Reach
67"
5' 4"
Height
5' 6"
29
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

With limited information, the physical advantages of Lone'er Kavanagh, particularly his reach, stand out as a potential differentiator in this Flyweight contest. This reach could allow him to control distance and land strikes from a safer range. Without further details on their fighting styles or recent performances, it's difficult to make a strong prediction, but Kavanagh's physical attributes gi

physical Kavanaghstyle Kavanagh
link
Co-Main · Heavyweight lean
AV Alexander Volkov
Alexander Volkov
40-11-0
OSM Pick
vs
RK Rizvan Kuniev
Rizvan Kuniev
14-3-1

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Alexander Volkov.

Alexander Volkov 65%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Alexander Volkov ~53% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 65% Sub 5% Dec 30%
80"
Reach
76"
6' 7"
Height
6' 4"
37
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

📊 OSM is 16-8 on lean calls

Alexander Volkov holds significant physical advantages in height and reach, which he effectively uses in his striking game. His extensive experience against elite heavyweights also gives him a substantial edge over Kuniev, who is likely facing a significant step up in competition. Volkov's ability to finish fights, particularly by KO, makes him a strong favorite here.

physical Volkovstyle Volkovcontext Volkovfinishing Volkov
link
Co-Main · Featherweight pick'em
AA Arnold Allen
Arnold Allen
21-4-0
vs
AP Aaron Pico
Aaron Pico
14-5-0
OSM Pick

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Aaron Pico.

Aaron Pico 51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Aaron Pico ~52% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Likely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 20% Dec 40%
70"
Reach
70.5"
5' 8"
Height
5' 8"
32
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox

This is a very close matchup between two highly skilled featherweights. Allen's well-rounded game and southpaw stance will test Pico's elite wrestling and powerful striking. I lean slightly towards Allen due to his more diverse offensive threats, but Pico's wrestling could be a dominant factor.

style Allenphysical Pico
link

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

Nov 7
★ Main Event · Welterweight pick'em
SB Sean Brady
Sean Brady
19-2-0
OSM Pick
vs
GB Gabriel Bonfim
Gabriel Bonfim
20-1-0

No betting line posted yet — our model leans Sean Brady.

Sean Brady 54%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Sean Brady ~42% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it ends Most likely: R2
KO/TKO 25% Sub 45% Dec 30%
72"
Reach
72.5"
5' 10"
Height
6' 1"
33
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox

Sean Brady's elite grappling and relentless pressure present a difficult challenge for Gabriel Bonfim, who has shown susceptibility to wrestling. While Bonfim possesses dangerous striking, Brady's ability to control the fight on the ground should lead him to a dominant victory. Look for Brady to secure takedowns and work towards a submission or ground and pound finish.

style Bradyform Bradyfinishing Bradycontext Brady
link

How the model works

We treat the betting line as the starting point — the crowd already prices most of the signal — then adjust it with seven scouting factors (form, style, physical, finishing, activity, context, sentiment), each grounded in the real tale of the tape and weighted by how confident we are it matters here. We cap how far we can drift from the market, so a pick is never a wild swing. When our number meaningfully beats the line, we flag it a value pick. For upcoming UFC cards we call the whole main card, even before the books post a line.

Every pick is logged and auto-graded against the result, so the record above is honest, fight by fight, including how we stack up against the betting line.

Picks updated 2026-08-19T11:00:42Z. Catch every upcoming card on the Fight Tracker. Not betting advice, for entertainment.